For the last two weeks, there has been protesting (and some rioting) in Seoul over the decision to resume importing American beef into South Korea. The cause for all the concern: the fact that US beef has been connected to a case of mad cow disease in Canada. In other words, the US beef supply is (to some unknown degree) tainted with mad cow, and therefore should not be consumed under any circumstances.
In my very first article, Understanding What You Read, I noted that statistics can be manipulated to convey many different objectives, agendas, and aims. Now I would like to elaborate on this.
How dangerous is mad cow disease? Well, according to current statistics, hundreds of thousands of cattle have been infected worldwide. Of those, many have entered the human food supply. The disease that humans can possibly get as a result of eating an infected cow is new variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), and this has currently been linked to roughly 200 deaths worldwide.
Yes, 200 deaths. Total. In ten years. In the whole world. That’s an average fatality rate of roughly 1 in 300 million per year.
In other words, you are more likely to die being hit by lightning than die of vCJD. You are more likely to be on a hijacked plane than die of vCJD. You are far more likely to choke on your meal (especially if it’s beef) than to die of vCJD.
To be fair to the statisticians and mathematicians, these numbers are expected to rise. There are probably a few dozen (perhaps even a few hundred) people worldwide who have been infected but have not yet shown symptoms and been diagnosed. It is even conceivable that the beef industry worldwide will have to drastically reduce its stock and start afresh from new, known-healthy animals.
But this is a far cry from any remote cause for panic. If anything, we should be aware, and we should hold the industry publicly accountable to handle the problem so that it does not become a global epidemic. US corporations, while fraught with scandal overall, are generally receptive to market demands and government regulation, especially when the two go hand-in-hand.
Therein lies the irony of the Korean protests: if anything, I suspect the US and UK beef supplies are becoming among the world’s safest, specifically because of the problems that have happened so far. I would be concerned about supplies from countries that don’t have the oversight, investigative, and litigious checks and controls that we do, such as the third-world countries around the globe. If an outbreak is going to get out of hand, it is far more likely to come from a small country that depends on beef exports for survival and lacks infrastructure and education to recognize the early-warning signs if an outbreak begins.
It never hurts to be aware. It’s good to keep informed of science and health news to know when a particular disease or activity is found to be of concern. But it’s also important to stay balanced in your response and choices regarding this knowledge.
If mad cow, or any other disease, frightens you, then it’s time to start learning. Keep the big picture in mind, and remember to compare the impact of a specific concern to other, common concerns. For instance, in the US, about 1/3 to 1/2 of all deaths are from heart disease. That’s thousands of deaths per day. About 1/3 of all deaths are from cancer. Compared to that, mad cow is negligible. If you eat beef every day, at every meal, you are still not going to get vCJD. It’s almost guaranteed you’ll be safe.
Spend your energy on other things, and stop worrying. Protest American beef? Hardly. There are more important things to be doing.
Resources:
- S Koreans protest against US beef
- vCJD Worldwide Figures (up-to-the-month, so figures may be different than quoted above)
Other news
- Clip ‘em and check ‘em: Toenails point to heart disease
- Just like chocolate: Sleep: A Necessity, Not a Luxury
- Saving the world, one breath at a time: Asthma Inhalers To Go Green
Quote for the week
Statistics: The only science that enables different experts using the same figures to draw different conclusions. - Evan Esar
From the editor
As a world traveler, I am often accused of many things just because I am an American. For instance, more than once I’ve been lectured on all the evils America and (insert whichever president is current at any given moment) are subjecting on the world. Whether its a war, a cultural influence, a scandal, or the environment, I’ve been vilified on many occasions simply because I come from a particular place.
Fortunately, Koreans as a whole are not giving me grief over the whole mad cow issue. At least this time, it’s not my fault.
Healthy thoughts,
Jeff
